The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

Dated: August 17 2020

Views: 213

The Beginning of an Economic Recovery

The Beginning of an Economic Recovery | MyKCM

The news these days seems to have a mix of highs and lows. We may hear that an economic recovery is starting, but we’ve also seen some of the worst economic data in the history of our country. The challenge today is to understand exactly what’s going on and what it means relative to the road ahead. We’ve talked before about what experts expect in the second half of this year, and today that progress largely hinges upon the continued course of the virus.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists noted, “A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of Covid-19.” Given the uncertainty around the virus, we can also see what economists are forecasting for GDP in the third quarter of this year (see graph below):The Beginning of an Economic Recovery | MyKCMOverwhelmingly, economists are projecting GDP growth in the third quarter of 2020, with 5 of the 9 experts indicating over 20% growth.

Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley puts it this way:

“Indeed, the ‘worst ever’ GDP reading could be followed by the ‘best ever’ growth in the third quarter.”

As we look forward, we can expect consumer spending to improve as well. According to Opportunity Insights, as of August 1, consumer spending was down just 7.8% as compared to January 1 of this year.

Bottom Line

An economic recovery is beginning to happen throughout the country. While there are still questions that need to be answered about the road ahead, we can expect to see improvement this quarter.

The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Jeffrey Daniels does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Jeffrey Daniels will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.

Latest Blog Posts

The U.S. Homeownership Rate Is Growing

The U.S. Homeownership Rate Is GrowingThe desire to own a home is still strong today. In fact, according to the Census, the U.S. homeownership rate is on the rise. To illustrate the

Read More

Selling Your House? Your Asking Price Matters More Now Than Ever

Selling Your House? Your Asking Price Matters More Now Than EverThere’s no doubt about the fact that the housing market is slowing from the frenzy we saw over the past two years. But

Read More

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for Home Prices?

What Does the Rest of the Year Hold for Home Prices?Whether you’re a potential homebuyer, seller, or both, you probably want to know: will home prices fall this year? Let

Read More

Why the Forbearance Program Changed the Housing Market

Why the Forbearance Program Changed the Housing MarketWhen the pandemic hit in 2020, many experts thought the housing market would crash. They feared job loss and economic uncertainty would lead to

Read More